Tuesday, January 08, 2008

New Year, New Beginning?

We don't think so. Just exactly where we are in the process of settling down to "normal" in the real estate business is uncertain, but for sure we're a long way from the end. Inventories of new and existing homes are too high, prices are too high, demand is not high and pending sales are off a substantial percentage. The stock market is uncertain and for the first five days of the new year the Dow Industrials have seen losses not seen since 1978, read that as in 30 years. All of that being said, what does it matter? Houses as an investment vehicle ceased to be viable some months ago, so there are probably very few people basing their decisions to sell or buy a home on economic events, which brings us a little closer to the real world of making decisions based on personal circumstances. Job changes, promotions, transfers, growing or shrinking family, etc. If a move into another home makes sense, or an entry into homeownership makes sense. Do it. If a job transfer mandates selling, do it. Interest rates are spectacularly good, well under 6% on fixed 30 year loans today, and mortgage money is available to qualified borrowers. Even commercial loans are carrying attractive rates.
The news about increasing numbers of foreclosures is not a myth, but it is also not the result of predatory lending practices. So far the problem stems from the unrealistic behavior of borrowers buying more home than they could afford with the expectation rising values would bail them out. Well the rising stopped, the payments are due, and they exceed the capacity to pay. Sort of like buying stock on margin at the peak. If there are no reserves, there is a serious problem. Soon the resetting mortgages will begin to have an impact on foreclosures, but these will happen for the same reason as above, unrealistic expectations and bad judgment. The ramifications for real estate prices in general will be to further depress prices to some degree. How much? Who Knows? Depends on the community, since all real estate tends to be local. But so what? If you're living in your home and have no personal reason for selling, don't. List it at a fair price if there is some reason for selling and move on. If there are good personal reasons for buying and it makes financial sense. Do it. Making buying or selling decisions in response to a perception of market forces is speculating, and if that's your purpose you may have to wait for the next cruise liner to pull into the dock. The last ship already left.
On a business note, we have tried very hard to make our web site resource rich, so if you're a serious buyer or seller it should be helpful. If you're simply curious it should be entertaining. Properties for sale, valuation data bases, mortgage information, free credit reports are all available, and if it's still lacking what you need, call. Our listings are now on every major real estate web site in the country, and if you're trying to sell your property on your own, call us and we'll give you a position on our site free, no obligation. One way or the other we're going to twist the tail on this tiger and make 2008 a good real estate year. We hope you'll join us. Watch for our billboards. Behind Carls Jr. at East and Esplanade this month.
As usual,
thanks for visiting.

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