ALMOST END OF MONTH

Wouldn't it be great if someone knew where the market was going? Depending on where one sits in the political spectrum it's possible to view the goings on in the political arena, legislative and executive; and the reporting media, print and visual, with alarm; outright fear; amusement; glee; approval or disapprobation. Politicians of all persuasions are leaping into the mortgage mess with solutions guaranteed to get them some press, probably guaranteed to hit all of us in the pocketbook, and very little else of merit. If left alone the market forces that got us here will almost certainly extricate us over time. Economic disruptions are somewhat like the common cold, the cure takes about seven days if treated, a week if left untreated. Not terribly sagacious on my part but the posturing of fools simply distracts us from attending to the business at hand, whatever that may be. Now that the fed has spoken we can all sit around and wonder what impact that will have, if any, and take bets on whether they're going to do it again, and if so what will that do, etc., etc. For the mortgage market, whether because of, or in spite of the fed, interest rates are about where they have been, in the low to mid 6% range for 30 year fixed rate loans. A very nice place to be.
Home sales however are something else again. The national figures are pretty heavily reported and don't mean a whole lot if you only are interested in one home you want to sell or buy. In our little neck of the woods the figures do mean a whole lot to us, and they are not pretty. September month to date (9/26/07) in greater Chico, 30 homes, 56% of 9/06. Paradise-Magalia, 20 homes, also 56% of 9/06, and for Glenn County 7 homes, 70% of 9/06. There are 556 homes listed in greater Chico, 387 in Paradise-Magalia, 177 in Glenn County. Remember these are MLS reported sales only and same for the listings. If you do the math you realize we have many, many months of supply at current sales levels. Great for buyers, tough on sellers. For the projections of resetting mortgages having a dramatic impact on the market, I doubt it. For people who simply need to get into a fixed vehicle and out of a resetting variable, the rates as noted are favorable. For those who have burdened their home beyond it's value by recklessly taking perceived equity out for good times and toys, tough. That's a personal financial problem, self induced, and not a social issue. However it is the issue the politicians are attempting to address.
Once again I can report that our offices are upbeat, listing activity is good, not great, sales are good, not great, commercial loan activity is pretty close to great, and so on. One of our commercial lenders called today and spent some time talking about how nice it's going to be when many of the opportunists are left by the wayside in this market and the client dedicated professionals are once again serving the needs of the public without distraction. We hope so.
Once again,
Thanks for visiting.