Statistics Anyone?

The statistics all this year, as related to real estate, have had and continue to have qualities that leave you feeling as you do when gazing into a kaleidoscope, interesting at least, exciting at times, but meaningful? The Commerce Department today released figures for new home sales for October. Down 3.2%. More than expected apparently and taken alone probably means something. Also it was reported the median price of a home increased by 2% to $248,500. Remember these are national statistics and we'll hit on that notion of median in a moment. While new home sales were "dropping", the National Assoc of Realtors reported for October the sale of existing homes rose by .5% the first increase since February. While all of this reporting was going on the California Assoc of Realtors announced the median price of a home in California increased to a figure I don't exactly recall but it was significantly above $400,000, and out of reach to everyone except something like 24% of potential buyers. The California figures are simply tragic in my mind. Just to return to this notion of "median" I'll annoy most of you by defining the obvious, but median price is that home which sold for a price exactly half way between the most expensive home and the least expensive home for that time period, in the entire state. The average price of a home in any area, Chico or elsewhere, is entirely unrelated to that median price. And remember that really attractive national median price? Meaningless for practical application. The only purpose it serves is to compare time periods and the ebb and flow of broad market conditions. Determining home prices in a local market requires a study of that local market. Chico, in fact Butte and Glenn counties generally, seem to be following the broader California movement, which is holding firm to slightly upward pressure. The plentiful signs and ads advising of "price reductions" are reductions in the asking prices, prices which are for the most part still skewed to profit taking rather than a sincere attempt to sell the home. Actual closed sales are not reflecting a decline in value.
Remember when you read all of the numbers that you can change their appearance and meaning just as you can change the colorful patterns in your kaleidoscope. It all depends on how you view them.
One more time: Interest rates are low, gas prices are low, unemployment is low (unless you work for Ford), inventory of homes is high. It's a good time to buy if you want a home.

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