Better Late?

Most of the blogs I read appear regularly and frequently, even when there is nothing to say. Trying to avoid annoying people with no news I thought I'd wait until there was something positive or newsworthy, but there isn't really, not either one of those. Resale homes on the market are at record levels, and reportedly 25% of them are REO's (lender owned properties), and no statistics for how many more are short sale candidates. This has a dramatic impact beyond just the simple glut. How do you determine the value of a home in this environment? Appraisers use closed sales taking place at arms length between informed buyers and informed sellers for establishing value. This is clearly not the case in this market. They are forced into using sales taking place under duress because there are not enough "normal" sales taking place to provide reliable data, and there is no formula for changing the duress sales into meaningful data. Appraisers are stressed, underwriters, who must rely on this data are in even worse shape. The trickle-down consequence of this of course is that none of us really know how much a house is worth. Sad really because our entire marketing effort is directed to that point at which an informed buyer and seller agree that a price is fair, and our job is to ensure that we bracket that price with some accuracy so that people don't waste their time with unrealistic expectations. It's getting very tough to do.
Most frequently asked question? How low are prices going to go? The answer is, no one knows. My peer group is persuaded that positive thinking will make everything OK and because there are lots of houses to pick from and prices have come down, and interest rates are favorable, this is a good time to buy. Not in my opinion unless you're going to make it your home for a very long time, certainly not as an investment decision. How about a good time to sell? Well actually about 18 months ago would have been better, but if you don't want or need your house any longer, now is probably better than 6 months from now. As mortgage people I can tell you that rates are favorable and if you have taken care of your credit some dandy refinance opportunities are out there. One of the our very best lenders is actually opening new offices while others are going out of business, but these guys are very, very good, and very, very careful.
Since there isn't any good real estate news let me tell you story passed on to my wife by a friend of hers. Her step-mother awoke one morning to the very noisy chirping and singing of birds. Since this was unusual she slowly opened her eyes and discovered she was lying in the grass in her front yard, dressed only in her peignoir, and daylight had arrived. Quickly, and she hoped invisibly, she made it into the house, remembering only vaguely the intake of the night before. Not wanting her neighbors thinking of her as a common drunk, for the next two weeks, after nightfall, she wandered about her front yard in her peignoir, attempting to portray a somnambulist. Whether it worked or not we don't know, but it doesn't sound like a dull neighborhood does it?

as usual,
thanks for visiting.